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Episode 1071: I Would’ve Felt Silly Saying Boo
Date June 15, 2017 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about position players pitching, another non-catcher catching, a Zack Cozart quote, and Ben’s latest home-runs research, then answer listener emails about Hunter Pence, better ways to make boundary calls, the number of plays at the plate, managerial aging curves, playing all nine positions in a game, the worst times to boo, the Freeze vs. Emilio Bonifacio, defining “moonshots,” MLB expansion, evaluating scouts and drafting, and more. Topics * Hunter Pence's mechanics * Fair/foul balls and statcast * Plays at the plate * Manager aging curve * Position players starting * Booing players * Running only players * MLB expansion * Defining a moon shot * Evaluating scouts Intro Koufax, "Out of Your Element" Outro Isotopes, "You Gotta Freeze" Banter * Position players pitching * Non-catchers catching * Zack Cozart, Joey Votto, & donkeys * Changes to the baseball Email Questions * Mike: "How much better do you think Hunter Pence would be if he had smooth mechanics?" * Edwin: "Edwin Encarnacion blasted a foul ball this weekend. Clearly this isn't the first time a large man hit a ball higher than the fair pole. My question is simply: what's the current state of statcast with regard to fair/foul balls? This isn't a call an umpire can actually make and yet, like a runner leaving a base early while tagging up, there is a correct answer to whether it's fair or foul. The radiation blasting the field currently can track everything else including angles and velocity--how long before we get boundary calls made by the computer? Optional related whimsy: why aren't there cameras or seats atop the fair pole or a vertical camera looking up the pole from its base?" * Zachary: "I have a simple question. It seems an easy hypothesis to assume that every increase in strikeouts and home runs probably coincides with fewer plays at the plate. Is that true? Is that research-able? I ask because I think the most exciting play in baseball is the play at the plate. And surely other events have, indirectly, become less frequent due to fewer balls in play: web gems, triple plays, trick plays, bloopers, etc. In other words, the stuff I obsessed over as a 12 year old. After a seeing a recent and very underwhelming "top 10 plays of the week," I have to wonder whether baseball is suffering a highlight drain. Or maybe I've just reached old-fogy status." * Steve:' "'Is there a manager aging curve? Or perhaps a managerial difficulty spectrum akin to the defensive adjustments? On this list of coaches, I count more than a dozen former managers among the coaches for the bench, 1st base, and 3rd base Some of them (Fredi Gonzalez, Larry Bowa) had been managers where they are currently coaches." * John: "I think we all think booing is dumb, but when is it the dumbest? I think my vote is for the specific situation where a home team closer has blown a save in the 9th and now his team is down a run. There's that familiar restless booing in the stands and some people are leaving, but in most stadiums it gets sort of quiet at this point. He's still in a jam (however you want to measure your jam) and could possibly let the game get out of hand. Instead, he roars back to get a big out or three, stranding runners and avoiding further damage. Then he walks off the mound and here come the loudest boos of the night. He just got a guy out! He wobbled but stayed on his feet! Your team needs to rally in the bottom of the ninth! Booing doesn't make sense, but this booing makes even less sense. Maybe you have a better example of the worst booing." * Dylan: "The best baseball anything to come out of the past week is a man called the Freeze, who challenges Braves fans at SunTrust Park to a sprint, giving the fan a headstart before crushing their hopes and dreams. couple of reporters have dug into who the Freeze is (including my friend Dan Roth at the Washington Post), and SI (and SNY) claims the Freeze, formerly known as Nigel Talton, ran the 60 meters in 6.77 seconds and the 100 in 10.47 seconds So my question: If the Braves offered Nigel Talton a bench contract, what would he be capable of? This is assuming he would 1. provide no value with a bat 2. very little value as a fielder (enough speed maybe to make him not the worst outfielder ever) and 3. extreme value compared to his peers as a pinch runner or bunter. Another way to phrase this question: If the Braves knew what they knew now, would they rather hire the Freeze or Emilio Bonifacio (-0.5 WAR and .132/.150/.211 slashline in 44 PAs before getting DFA'd) to be their 25th man?" * James: "Shouldn't the more local pattern of baseball's interests and viewing habits imply that MLB should be larger than the NFL or NBA, in terms of number of teams? We hear quite often about how, while interest in the national storylines and playoffs for basketball and football is greater than baseball, MLB is sustained by the strong local passions and revenues for big league teams. More people might watch the Pro Bowl than the World Series, but enough people are interested in watching 100+ games in their baseball team's season that it evens out. The thought I am having is this: shouldn't this make expansion a much more attractive prospect to MLB, compared to the other sports? Obviously there are serious baseball fans everywhere, but surely even the "weaker" markets like Tampa Bay have to be bringing in so much more money for baseball than places like Indianapolis or Vancouver do. Local TV revenues drive baseball more than basketball or football - yet there are 32 NFL teams, 30 NBA teams, 30 (soon to be 31) NHL teams, and ... 30 MLB teams. It seems that, if the ratio of'' local money : national money'' is high, expanding a league should be more attractive. I do know that the MLB.tv empire is very valuable to the league. Is the prospect of dividing the league-wide revenue sources by 32 (or more) instead of 30 just that significant? Or am I overestimating the amount of potential money that expansion to the new markets would bring? Maybe people in Charlotte and Portland (ahem) already spend money (directly and indirectly) on baseball, and just wouldn't spend much that more even if there were a big league team in their town." * James: "So, I have a buddy who loves to call home runs, "Moon Shots". I got to thinking, and I was just wondering, how far does a home run have to be hit for it to be properly deemed a, "Moon Shot"?" * Brennan: "Would evaluating where in the draft teams tend to pick players, versus where those players are projected to go yield useful insights? It seems that an organization with better than league-average scouting ability would tend to "reach" on players underrated by others, or avoid top-ranked prospects who they've correctly deemed a bust? Or would the data, at least near the top of the draft, be hopelessly noisy, based on the other—non-talent related—reasons teams take players early (eg., signability, high bonus demands)?" Stat Blast * Jeff described the two instances of position players starting a game at pitcher. * In 1950 Alvin Dark started the last game of the season. * In 1968 Cesar Tovar started a game for the Twins. He would play all 9 positions during the game. Notes * Chris Gimenez has pitched 5 times this year and has 8 appearances in his career. No position player has more career appearances. * Ben summarizes the 1983 game when Tippy Martinez picked off three straight runners off first base. This story was also discussed in Episode 275. * Holding launch angle and velocity constant, hit balls were more likely to be a home run in 2016 than 2015. * In 1986 the average team made 21 outs at home during the season. . In 2016 it had declined to 16 outs at home over the course of a season. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1071: I Would’ve Felt Silly Saying Boo * The Era of Position Players Pitching by Jeff Sullivan * An Incredible Discovery About Position Players Pitching by Jeff Sullivan * The Juiced Ball is Back by Ben Lindbergh * Joey Votto will buy Zack Cozart a donkey if he makes the All-Star team by Dan Gartland * Edwin Encarnacion foul ball video * What, Exactly, Is a Jam? by Jeff Sullivan Category:Email Episodes Category:Episodes